Predictions for Running Fable 5 Locally

Predictions for Running Fable 5 Locally
According to discussions on Reddit, Fable 5 is likely to be able to run locally in about two years.
Such predictions are illustrated by a graph published in r/LocalLLaMA, which tracks how long it takes for the capabilities of advanced cloud models to become comparable to open models that can run on a regular laptop.
The average observed lag is about 24.8 months:

• GPT-3 level capabilities — in 37 months.
• GPT-3.5 level capabilities — in 17 months.
• GPT-4 level capabilities — in about 24 months.
  According to this forecast, Fable/Mythos 5 level models will be able to run on high-performance consumer hardware by around July 2028.
  However, there is a caveat. If the current trend continues, high-performance consumer hardware will cost as much as corporate equipment.
  🤣